By Chris Thatcher | February 24, 2017 Estimated reading time 4 minutes, 45 seconds.
The debut of Boeing’s 787-10 Dreamliner at its factory in South Carolina on Feb. 17 was just the first of several highly-anticipated reveals and milestones over the next 24 months.
The list includes the 737-8 MAX, which is expected to enter service in the first half of 2017; the 777X, which will begin production later this year; and the twin aisle 777-9, which will make its debut in 2018–all part of a “big change in product lineup” that will see the United States airplane manufacturer introduce six new aircraft over the next five years.
The mix of fresh aircraft slated to come off its well-established production lines are designed to fit a 20-year market forecast that projects a global demand for over 38,000 new airplanes, valued at $5.6 trillion, to replace aging aircraft and to sustain significant growth, said Justin Hale, regional director of product marketing for Boeing’s commercial division at a briefing at its production facility in Everett, Wash., in January.
Much of that growth will be in Asia, where Boeing projects a need for more than 14,000 aircraft, many to serve new routes. But the company’s analysis also shows “about a trillion dollars of that business being in North America” where almost 8,000 aircraft will be required to primarily replace older platforms, Hale said, including those of Canadian operators Air Canada and WestJet. “We see a lot of growth. This is a mature market but it is still a healthy market.”
While the global economy might have stagnated following the Great Recession of 2008-2009, the airline industry, spurred in part by low fuel costs, saw modest growth. Boeing’s analysis showed around six per cent gains in passenger traffic between 2010 and 2015, which resulted in about $96 billion in profit industry wide. And that six per cent rise is expected to continue through 2017.
“We see a good year coming and generally a good future for most operators around the world,” said Hale.
The call for new aircraft has shaped a product strategy emphasizing fuel efficiency, the flexibility to operate the same plane on short and long routes, and passenger flying experience–what Hale termed the “psychology of flying.”
Many of the aircraft in the pipeline will feature not only composite structures, enhanced engines, and advanced flight decks, but also changes to influence “how a passenger’s mind and body reacts to the space they are flying in.” That will include wider cabins, larger baggage bins, bigger and higher windows to allow all passengers to see the horizon, and lighting systems intended to work with passengers’ circadian rhythms.
While all eyes were on the 787-10 Dreamliner last week, perhaps the most anticipated new product is the latest generation of the 737 line, the 737 MAX, which is in a battle with the Airbus A320 Neo for a lucrative single aisle market that Boeing projects could exceed 5,000 aircraft over the next 20 years. Boeing has trailed Airbus on schedule and orders, but Hale expected that gap to close.
“There is not a new single aisle product on the horizon from either Boeing or Airbus at this point, so it really is MAX versus Neo,” Hale acknowledged. “They had a bit of a head start and had, in some cases, some architectural advantages that we didn’t have–a higher sitting engine which benefited them in terms of the size of engine they could put on the airplane. We have countered that and we have efficiency that exceeds theirs. So we feel comfortable with where we are positioned. But that is the competition.”
As of January, the four variants of the MAX family (7, 8, 9 and 200–the 200 is a derivative of the MAX 8 tailored to low-cost carriers) had received over 3,600 orders from 83 customers.
