By Chris Thatcher | February 23, 2018 Estimated reading time 4 minutes, 25 seconds.
If you’ve seen recent television recruiting advertisements for the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF), you’ll have noticed the diversity of ethnicities and gender of the young men and women in uniform. What you won’t have seen is any grey hair. And that might become a problem as Canadian demographics continue to change.
“Why does it have to be young people who do this? Because we are not going to have enough,” said Darrell Bricker of IPSOS Public Affairs.
In an opening address to the Ottawa Conference of Defence and Security on Feb 22, Bricker described an “old Canada giving way to a new Canada” that could have far-reaching implications for Air Force, Army and Navy recruitment.
A declining birth rate and an aging population are common trends across the western world and even among many emerging economies. But for militaries that rely on a pool of young talent from which to replenish the ranks, finding enough people could be a challenge if the CAF is to continue growing.
By 2050, a quarter of the Canadian population is expected to be over 65. And by 2036, there could be as few as 2.3 working Canadians for every retired person.
“Get used to a future of fewer young people,” Bricker said of a growing global trend that has caused some pundits to joke that we might be heading for a “geriatric peace” because “we’re too old to fight.”
For the military, that will mean stiff competition with the rest of government and the private sector for a younger demographic that should encourage new rethinking about who can serve, he observed, especially in emerging cyber and information management trades that might not demand the military’s normal standards of physical fitness.
“We have to find ways to open up military opportunities to a greater diversity of people,” he said.
Fortunately, Canada accepts more legal immigrants per capita than any other country in the world. Most are coming from countries across the Asia Pacific, especially the Philippines. And most of those are settling in large urban centres in Western Canada, much like the rest of Canadians.
That could have implications for defence and security policy as the focus shifts to “Pacific issues and nations as we move forward in this era,” said Bricker. “They feel a connection to those places.”
It could also impact issues like northern sovereignty, which could become increasingly difficult to project “when fewer and fewer [Canadians] are living there.”
If there’s a silver lining in IPSOS’ survey data, it’s the fact that a majority of Canadians support the military. In an annual survey of most trusted professionals, the military received a 62 per cent approval rating, just below airline pilots at 63 per cent.
“[You are] a very trusted profession, a very credible profession,” Bricker told an audience comprised of many serving and retired military members. That well-respected status has been steadily rising by about 14 per cent since Bricker first began the survey in the early 2000s. “It’s the only profession that has.”
With that respect comes a willingness to spend more on defence, according to 63 per cent of survey respondents. A majority believes Canada should be engaged in the world and over 80 per cent agreed with the notion that Canada has a moral responsibility to engage, though more with economic power than military might.
Bricker was asked if older Canadians had indicated a desire to see their children serve. IPSOS surveys have not probed that question, but he said the military would have to look at how it retains its people.
The idea of retiring at 55 “is going away,” he said. “We need to adjust our thinking to the new realities of Canada and the world.”
